MT-Sen: AP calls it for Tester!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/... Tester held a 3,128-vote lead over Burns with only one county left to count its votes. That county had fewer than 1,000 votes to report. An AP canvass of Montana counties...
View Article2006 Election Recap, Analysis, and Random Thoughts
Well, now that Ciro Rodriguez’s win in TX-23 is in the books, all 2006 races are now decided (with the exception that Christine Jennings may yet succeed in invalidating the FL-13 result and securing a...
View ArticleTop 50 Vulnerable GOP House Seats for 2008
I looked through Bowers’ Top 50 list and agree with much of it, but I thought he put too much emphasis as a whole on the "candidate quality" of the Republican incumbent, and too little on the makeup of...
View Article2008 House Retirement Watch
The first quarter of fundraising for the 2007-08 election cycle is over and the campaigns were supposed to file reports with the FEC on Sunday. I say supposed to because 47 incumbents' summaries were...
View Article2008 House Overview
This diary is intended to be an overview of the 2008 House elections picture. In the coming weeks, I will profile each district and race listed below (plus those which later look competitive due to...
View ArticleNo need for progressives to war on the Democrats--a response to eugene
Eugene has a very well thought out and well argued diary on the rec list right now which explores what building a Progressive movement means and posits that it requires "moving on" from the goal of...
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part I of XX (New England)
This is to be the first of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. The goal is to put up one a week, which will finish the series before the holidays....
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part II of XX (New York)
This is to be the second of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I missed last week. The next two...
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part III of XX (New Jersey & Pennsylvania Part 1)
This is to be the second of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I missed last week. I added my...
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part IV of XX (Pennsylvania Part 2)
This is to be the fourth of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I’ve been AWOL for about two months due...
View Article2008 Senate Preview and Vulnerability Rankings
I will get back to the House race profiles shortly, but with all of the recent developments on the Senate side, it seemed like a good time to do a Senate diary.In sum, the question in the Senate in...
View Article2008 House Rankings
This is my first go at rating the House races this cycle. Like 2006, there appear to be far more targets for the Democrats than the Republicans--despite the fact that the Dems now hold more seats and...
View ArticleAnalysis of State of Delegate Race
This is an attempt to objectively assess the state of the primary race. Full disclosure: I was an ardent Edwards supporter, voted for Obama in Illinois after he dropped out, and would be satisfied...
View ArticleProfessional Pundits' Composite House Ratings (Final 4 Style)
In 2006, I began compiling composite rankings from the various individuals and publications that rank the likelihood of turnover in House seats, in addition to my own ratings. I plan to do the same...
View ArticleSuperribbie House Rankings
This is my first crack at rating the races this election cycle because life has been busy and because I have been less dedicated than I'd like. Where we are is pretty breathtaking. The Dems are on...
View Article2010 Senate Picture: Pieces are in Place for Another +5 or More
In looking at the 2010 Senate picture, it strikes me that in a neutral-to-Dem-favorable environment and with decent recruiting, the party could net 5 or more seats for the third straight cycle. This...
View ArticleHealth Care--the new thermonuclear war
After catching up on all of the developments this weekend, it strikes me that we are seeing a variation of the detente based on the concept of mutually-assured-destruction that defined the Cold War...
View ArticleWhy a strong public option may be easier to pass than a weak one, or co-ops
So, I was driving to work this morning and, like most mornings, was listening to the Chicago's Progressive Talk lineup--the end of the Bill Press Show and the beginning of the Stephanie Miller Show....
View ArticleHouse Race Vulnerability Rankings
This is the first installment of a feature I’ve done in the past. It is a ranking of the composite ratings of House races by the four major rating organizations—the Cook Report, the Rothenberg Report,...
View ArticleHouse Vulnerability Rankings and Overall Projection
Periodically, I go through the professional forecasters' House race rankings and assign numerical values to each ranking. I then rank the races based on their score and give each of them a consensus...
View Article