First Quarter FEC filings for House races to watch (Part IIb--GOP Incumbents,...
All House candidates have now submitted their 1st quarter 2006 FEC reports. I have been keeping track of the most competitive races. The following is the long list of where the potentially competitve...
View Article"Bumpy Road Ahead for GOP"--Charlie Cook; plus FEC numbers for Dem...
According to today's column by Charlie Cook, probably the top election analyst in the country, there is indeed a party suffering from a motivation gap this year. And, contrary to what kos and others...
View ArticleMay House Race Rankings
As many of you know, I am a House race watcher who has been periodically ranking the seats, both Dem and GOP in terms of likelihood of turnover to the other party. In this respect, there are...
View ArticleHouse Race Rankings: Comparison of my May List to National Journal's Chuck...
At the beginning of the month, I posted an update on House race rankings, which is available here: http://www.dailykos.com/.... Today, the National Journal's rankings, prepared by Editor-in-Chief...
View ArticleComposite House Race Ratings by Pro Prognosticators
In yesterday's diary, where I compared my House rankings to those of Chuck Todd of the National Journal, DavidNYC suggested that someone do a composite of the rankings or ratings of the handful of...
View ArticleJune House Rankings
As many of you know, I am a House race watcher who has been periodically ranking the seats, both Dem and GOP in terms of likelihood of turnover to the other party. In this respect, there are...
View ArticleJune Composite House Rankings by Pro Prognosticators
Yesterday, I updated my own rankings, which can be found here: http://www.dailykos.com/.... Last month I also began keeping track of what the professionals are saying. In that category, I consider...
View ArticleUS Senate Polling Scoreboard
The following is a quick reference scoreboard for where the various Senate races stand. I list the polls used and the date. Where there are multiple polls within a reasonable time period, I average...
View ArticleConnecticut Results, Some Thoughts on November
As I'm sure most of you know by now, Joe Lieberman has filed to run as a member of a vanity party in the fall: http://news.yahoo.com/.... As I am someone who has already been proven wrong in one...
View ArticleAugust House Rankings (with poll)
This is my (very) belated July update for House races, which barely makes it in August. The big news since the last posting (http://www.dailykos.com/...) is the release of the second quarter...
View ArticleHouse 2006: August Composite House Ratings by Pros
Last week, I updated my own rankings, which can be found here: http://www.dailykos.com/.... I also keep track of what the professionals are saying. In that category, I consider the National...
View ArticleUpdated Composite House Ratings by Pro Analysts
As some of you know, I am an analyst of House races. In addition to my own ratings, I have been keeping track of what the nonpartisan professionals have been saying about individual races. I...
View ArticleUpdated House Rankings by Pro Analysts
I have been keeping close track of the battle for the House. In addition to my own race ratings, I also have been doing a running composite of the non-partisan professional analysts' ratings. In that...
View ArticlePros' Composite House Forecast
I posted an update of the pros' composite House ratings on Monday. In that diary, I combined the parties' seats, as the National Journal does. At the request of DavidNYC, I am now reposting the...
View ArticleMajor Shifts to the Dems in Analysts' House Race Ratings
I last posted an update of the pros' composite House ratings on September 27, two days before hurricane Foley hit. Obviously, much has changed in the three weeks since then--almost all of it in the...
View ArticleSenate Polling Scoreboard
With the latest round of Zogby Interactive garbage polls out, I thought I should share what the real polls are saying about the Senate race. I include all non-interactive, non-partisan polls. I...
View ArticleHouse Elections Final 4 Style Pool
With all this buzz about "fantasy Congress", I figured I'd put together a March Madness-style bracket with the 64 most competitive GOP-held House seats. Anyone who wants to play, e-mail me their...
View ArticleAnalysts House Composite House Rankings One Week Out (Plus Race Polls)
With one week to go, here is how the professional non-partisan forecasters see the races. The consensus is that the House will flip to Democratic control, and the question is by how much. This is...
View ArticleMT-Sen: AP calls it for Tester!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/... Tester held a 3,128-vote lead over Burns with only one county left to count its votes. That county had fewer than 1,000 votes to report. An AP canvass of Montana counties...
View Article2006 Election Recap, Analysis, and Random Thoughts
Well, now that Ciro Rodriguez’s win in TX-23 is in the books, all 2006 races are now decided (with the exception that Christine Jennings may yet succeed in invalidating the FL-13 result and securing a...
View ArticleTop 50 Vulnerable GOP House Seats for 2008
I looked through Bowers’ Top 50 list and agree with much of it, but I thought he put too much emphasis as a whole on the "candidate quality" of the Republican incumbent, and too little on the makeup of...
View Article2008 House Retirement Watch
The first quarter of fundraising for the 2007-08 election cycle is over and the campaigns were supposed to file reports with the FEC on Sunday. I say supposed to because 47 incumbents' summaries were...
View Article2008 House Overview
This diary is intended to be an overview of the 2008 House elections picture. In the coming weeks, I will profile each district and race listed below (plus those which later look competitive due to...
View ArticleNo need for progressives to war on the Democrats--a response to eugene
Eugene has a very well thought out and well argued diary on the rec list right now which explores what building a Progressive movement means and posits that it requires "moving on" from the goal of...
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part I of XX (New England)
This is to be the first of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. The goal is to put up one a week, which will finish the series before the holidays....
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part II of XX (New York)
This is to be the second of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I missed last week. The next two...
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part III of XX (New Jersey & Pennsylvania Part 1)
This is to be the second of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I missed last week. I added my...
View Article2008 House Races to Watch, Part IV of XX (Pennsylvania Part 2)
This is to be the fourth of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I’ve been AWOL for about two months due...
View Article2008 Senate Preview and Vulnerability Rankings
I will get back to the House race profiles shortly, but with all of the recent developments on the Senate side, it seemed like a good time to do a Senate diary.In sum, the question in the Senate in...
View Article2008 House Rankings
This is my first go at rating the House races this cycle. Like 2006, there appear to be far more targets for the Democrats than the Republicans--despite the fact that the Dems now hold more seats and...
View ArticleAnalysis of State of Delegate Race
This is an attempt to objectively assess the state of the primary race. Full disclosure: I was an ardent Edwards supporter, voted for Obama in Illinois after he dropped out, and would be satisfied...
View ArticleProfessional Pundits' Composite House Ratings (Final 4 Style)
In 2006, I began compiling composite rankings from the various individuals and publications that rank the likelihood of turnover in House seats, in addition to my own ratings. I plan to do the same...
View ArticleSuperribbie House Rankings
This is my first crack at rating the races this election cycle because life has been busy and because I have been less dedicated than I'd like. Where we are is pretty breathtaking. The Dems are on...
View Article2010 Senate Picture: Pieces are in Place for Another +5 or More
In looking at the 2010 Senate picture, it strikes me that in a neutral-to-Dem-favorable environment and with decent recruiting, the party could net 5 or more seats for the third straight cycle. This...
View ArticleHealth Care--the new thermonuclear war
After catching up on all of the developments this weekend, it strikes me that we are seeing a variation of the detente based on the concept of mutually-assured-destruction that defined the Cold War...
View ArticleWhy a strong public option may be easier to pass than a weak one, or co-ops
So, I was driving to work this morning and, like most mornings, was listening to the Chicago's Progressive Talk lineup--the end of the Bill Press Show and the beginning of the Stephanie Miller Show....
View ArticleHouse Race Vulnerability Rankings
This is the first installment of a feature I’ve done in the past. It is a ranking of the composite ratings of House races by the four major rating organizations—the Cook Report, the Rothenberg Report,...
View ArticleHouse Vulnerability Rankings and Overall Projection
Periodically, I go through the professional forecasters' House race rankings and assign numerical values to each ranking. I then rank the races based on their score and give each of them a consensus...
View ArticleHouse Rankings and Projection (-32 at present)
This is an update to my September 10 diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a...
View ArticleHouse Rankings and Projection (-35 at present)
This is an update to my September 22 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a...
View ArticleHouse Rankings and Projection (-38 at present)
This is an update to my October 4 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a...
View ArticleFinal House Rankings and Projection (-47)
This is the latest installment in my look at the individual House races through the composite of the raters' services. This is an update to my October 15 Diary documenting the collective House race...
View ArticleHouse Race Vulnerability Rankings
As people who have been around awhile are aware, I follow House races closely. This is the first installment of a feature I’ve done in the past. It is a ranking of the composite ratings of House...
View ArticleYouGov/Economist (10/6-8): Obama 49, Romney 46
Haven't seen this posted yet: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/.... I believe this is the first national non-Rasmussen tracker to contain all post-Friday interviews. Obama is up 3 despite...
View ArticlePPP Florida: R 49 O 48
So sez the Twitter feed: https://twitter.com/....+5 for Romney there as compared to 2 weeks agoHe's clawed into +2 favorability from -7.More details to follow.
View ArticleRomney joins the 47 percenters
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/.... Current tally: Obama 50.5%, Romney 47.9%. That is all.
View ArticleThe GOP will not gain Southern House seats in 2014
Republicans have largely based their successes in House elections since 1992 on grabbing the low hanging fruit of white, conservative southern seats held by Dems--either by beating them or by taking...
View ArticleAutomobiles and crack cocaine: thoughts on how to well-regulate the right of...
As some of you may know, I am an attorney by trade. I am also the father of twins who will be 6 in February. Oh, and incidentally, one of my best college friends is a high school teacher in Newtown,...
View Article2016 House Race Composite Rankings Through June 20
Below is a survey of the House playing field as it’s shaping up. I have combined the race ratings of the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and DK Elections and...
View ArticleSome Reasons to Be Bullish on 2020
It’s easy to bounce between the extremes of “Trump is toast and will be gone by week end” to “he’s going to actually repeat 2016.” Assuming he is the 2020 GOP nominee, however, the latter is a very...
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