With one week to go, here is how the professional non-partisan forecasters see the races. The consensus is that the House will flip to Democratic control, and the question is by how much. This is important both in terms of ability to govern in 2007-08 and in terms of keeping control after 2008. If you look at the top of this list, you will see quite a few generally Republican seats Democrats are poised to pick up this year due to unusual circumstances. (TX-22, OH-18, and PA-10 leap immediately to mind). These will be at the top of the 2008 GOP target list, and some will likely flip back in '08. Thus a majority of a few seats is precarious both for governing and for holding. Once you start seeing net gains of 24 or more, however, the GOP would need 10 defectors to stop the majority from doing what it wants next Congress and a net of 10 seats to wrest back control in 2008. Charlie Cook predicts a net gain of 20-35 seats for the Democrats; Stu Rothenberg says 18-28 with the caveat that larger gains are possible; and Larry Sabato says 21-26 seats.
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