Some Reasons to Be Bullish on 2020
It’s easy to bounce between the extremes of “Trump is toast and will be gone by week end” to “he’s going to actually repeat 2016.” Assuming he is the 2020 GOP nominee, however, the latter is a very...
View Article2016 House Race Composite Rankings Through June 20
Below is a survey of the House playing field as it’s shaping up. I have combined the race ratings of the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and DK Elections and...
View ArticleAutomobiles and crack cocaine: thoughts on how to well-regulate the right of...
As some of you may know, I am an attorney by trade. I am also the father of twins who will be 6 in February. Oh, and incidentally, one of my best college friends is a high school teacher in Newtown,...
View ArticleThe GOP will not gain Southern House seats in 2014
Republicans have largely based their successes in House elections since 1992 on grabbing the low hanging fruit of white, conservative southern seats held by Dems--either by beating them or by taking...
View ArticleRomney joins the 47 percenters
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/.... Current tally: Obama 50.5%, Romney 47.9%. That is all.
View ArticlePPP Florida: R 49 O 48
So sez the Twitter feed: https://twitter.com/....+5 for Romney there as compared to 2 weeks agoHe's clawed into +2 favorability from -7.More details to follow.
View ArticleYouGov/Economist (10/6-8): Obama 49, Romney 46
Haven't seen this posted yet: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/.... I believe this is the first national non-Rasmussen tracker to contain all post-Friday interviews. Obama is up 3 despite...
View ArticleHouse Race Vulnerability Rankings
As people who have been around awhile are aware, I follow House races closely. This is the first installment of a feature I’ve done in the past. It is a ranking of the composite ratings of House...
View ArticleFinal House Rankings and Projection (-47)
This is the latest installment in my look at the individual House races through the composite of the raters' services. This is an update to my October 15 Diary documenting the collective House race...
View ArticleHouse Rankings and Projection (-38 at present)
This is an update to my October 4 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a...
View ArticleHouse Rankings and Projection (-35 at present)
This is an update to my September 22 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a...
View ArticleHouse Rankings and Projection (-32 at present)
This is an update to my September 10 diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a...
View ArticleHouse Vulnerability Rankings and Overall Projection
Periodically, I go through the professional forecasters' House race rankings and assign numerical values to each ranking. I then rank the races based on their score and give each of them a consensus...
View ArticleHouse Race Vulnerability Rankings
This is the first installment of a feature I’ve done in the past. It is a ranking of the composite ratings of House races by the four major rating organizations—the Cook Report, the Rothenberg Report,...
View ArticleWhy a strong public option may be easier to pass than a weak one, or co-ops
So, I was driving to work this morning and, like most mornings, was listening to the Chicago's Progressive Talk lineup--the end of the Bill Press Show and the beginning of the Stephanie Miller Show....
View ArticleHealth Care--the new thermonuclear war
After catching up on all of the developments this weekend, it strikes me that we are seeing a variation of the detente based on the concept of mutually-assured-destruction that defined the Cold War...
View Article2010 Senate Picture: Pieces are in Place for Another +5 or More
In looking at the 2010 Senate picture, it strikes me that in a neutral-to-Dem-favorable environment and with decent recruiting, the party could net 5 or more seats for the third straight cycle. This...
View ArticleSuperribbie House Rankings
This is my first crack at rating the races this election cycle because life has been busy and because I have been less dedicated than I'd like. Where we are is pretty breathtaking. The Dems are on...
View ArticleProfessional Pundits' Composite House Ratings (Final 4 Style)
In 2006, I began compiling composite rankings from the various individuals and publications that rank the likelihood of turnover in House seats, in addition to my own ratings. I plan to do the same...
View ArticleAnalysis of State of Delegate Race
This is an attempt to objectively assess the state of the primary race. Full disclosure: I was an ardent Edwards supporter, voted for Obama in Illinois after he dropped out, and would be satisfied...
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